Wednesday, March 29, 2006

coalition analysis

Looks like my predicted numbers were slightly off. The count with more then 99% of the vote counted is:
Kadima : 28
Labor : 20
Shas : 13
Lieberman : 12
Likud : 11
Arabs : 10
Gil (old folks) : 7
UTJ : 6
Meretz : 4

The coalition games will begin. Lets start out by saying that I would not be surprised if the Arab parties were invited to join the coalition by Kadima. There are 3 Arab parties, though so that would compound the difficulties.

Possible coalitions:
Kadima, Labor, Shas, UTJ, Gil= 74 seats - strong coalition
Kadima, Labor, Meretz, Arabs = 62 seats - very hard to stomach for a half of kadima members.
Kadima, Labor, Likud, Gil= 66 seats - would be called national unity and acceptable to most in both parties
If Kadima cannot pull together one of those 3 coalitions, the game might get interesting.
Shas, Lieberman,Likud,NUNRP,oldfolks,UTJ and 3 Kadima rebels = 61
Kadima right wingers may break from the party and return to Likud or even Lieberman on the proposal to include Arab parties. The right wing should anticipate and encourage this.

The real question is whether Kadima can stomach the social demands of both Labor and the Pensioners. It seems like they won't have a choice if they want to build a disengagement coalition.

The only way this can happen is if Shas, UTJ and Likud hold out on a Kadima/Labor group. This is not seen as likely.

A second round of elections will probably have even lower voter turnout then this one did.

1 comment:

stillruleall said...

Your first choice seems most likely, but they don't need Shas for it. Lieberman would cave in if it came to going for elections again, he has too much to lose.