Monday, March 27, 2006

election predictions

(Unsponsored) Ad for UTJ - A vote for UTJ is like putting a dollar in tzedaka. If you hate all the other parties, why not give some tzedaka.

My election predictions are as follows:
Kadima : 28
Labor : 24
Likud : 20
Shas : 16
NRP/NU : 14
Lieberman: 6
Arabs : 5
Meretz : 4
UTJ : 3

This leaves nobody with a natural coalition. Though it opens a strong possibility of Kadima, Labor, Shas and UTJ. That will give shas a lot of power. Another possibility is that Likud and Labor will leave Kadima in the cold and join together to destroy their common enemy. Remeber if Kadima is not in the government, they are completely out of the picture. They don't have a platform or ideology holding them together. You will definitely not have a strong opposition and the people in that party will likely float back to their original parties.
My numbers gives the right wing bloc only 59 seats. The left wing coalition is not much better, as the arabs would never join the government, so a left wing coalition would only include 56 seats.
My government prediction is either Kadima, Labor, Shas and UTJ or Likud, Labor, NRP, Shas and UTJ, giving each party about equal power.

The rock of galilee still has not come out with an absolute recommendation, but we will definitely be voting either for UTJ or NRP/NU. We don't see the UTJ as being a major player because of the few seats that they have and I don't see any possibility of them joining a coalition without either shas or the NUNRP, and shas is their more natural partner.

(just to let you know the official polls from yesterdays yidiot (if I remember it correctly), so we can compare afterwards:
kadima : 34
labor : 21
likud : 13
Lieberman: 12
Shas : 11
nunrp : 9
arabs : 7
meretz : 5
old people : 2

Which leaves 6 seats unaccounted for.)


Jameel @ The Muqata said...

The UTJ says the internet is assur, so how can you have an ad for them? Isn't that like "Lifnei Eeveir?"

Richie Sevrinsky said...

Actually, a vote for UTJ is more like taking a dollar out of someone else's pocket and putting it in tzedaka.

Not quite the same thing, if you ask me.

traintalk said...

why not vote for labor so that the people who give (the ones who have the least) will have more to give?

rockofgalilee said...

Jameel - nobody paskins like that.
Richie - I'm paying taxes. the money is going to social programs. It is a choice who the money goes to. It can go to social programs that I don't consider tzedaka or to social programs that I do consider tzedaka. None of the candidates have suggested lowering taxes except bibi. and nobody believes him.
train - there is nothing in the world that can convince me to vote for Jimmy Hoffa.

Rafi G. said...

rock - I do not know why you do not believe Bibi on the issue of taxes. in the last three years he has successfully lowered taxes for the working class people. He has singlehandedly turnd around the state of the economy. That might be the only good thing he has done, but do not take it away from him. He deserves credit for the improved economy, even if you do not agree with all his moves.

Anonymous said...

I don't understand your predictions. Lieberman has gained the most momentum over the past couple of weeks. How do you see them losing 5-6 seats by tomorrow? I don't see Shas taking those seats away from him. At the very least, Kadima will most likely get 30. There is also the strong possibility that Oleh Yarok will gain a couple of seats and enter the government. Many undecideds have stated that they will vote for them. The only way Kadima would lose as many seats as you say is if it rains tomorrow. Ad plug: A vote for Lieberman is a vote to put rapists in jail for longer.

rockofgalilee said...

anonymous - if you have predictions post your numbers, we'll compare swednesday afternoon.

Rafi - whether bibi will or will not or has or has not lowered taxes is not relevant. What I said, and this is the only relevant point, is that nobody believes that he will.Elections are all about public perception and the perception is that bibi is only for the rich.

stillruleall said...

My predictions are up